In a few weeks, millions of Americans will go to the polls in what will inevitably be described as the most important election of their lifetimes. Millions have already cast ballots early or by mail in an election that has been marked by landmark events and unex­pect­ed turns. After a dis­as­trous early debate, President Biden reluc­tant­ly withdrew his candidacy and Democrats selected Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s nominee. In addition, Republican nominee Donald Trump survived two separate assas­si­na­tion attempts. Since our last report, both parties held their nom­i­nat­ing con­ven­tions, and pro­ceed­ings in Trump’s legal cases continued, though their pace has slowed and they have largely receded from the headlines. With the campaigns taking center stage, so too have false or inflam­ma­to­ry claims by and about the can­di­dates as well as broader concerns about public con­fi­dence in the integrity of American elections and the prospect of another effort to overturn their result.

In this fraught envi­ron­ment, we fielded parallel surveys of 549 political sci­en­tists and a rep­re­sen­ta­tive sample of 2750 Americans from September 25–October 8, 2024.¹