One of the greatest threats to democracy is the idea that it is unassailable.

At a time of potential danger to American demo­c­ra­t­ic norms and insti­tu­tions, it is more urgent than ever for scholars to highlight the risks to our system of gov­ern­ment. In this spirit, Bright Line Watch brings together a group of political sci­en­tists to monitor demo­c­ra­t­ic practices, their resilience, and potential threats.

Featured report

Concessions and non-con­ces­sions in the 2020 and 2022 elections for Congress

Concession state­ments by defeated can­di­dates are an important political ritual. They signal the candidate’s adherence to the demo­c­ra­t­ic rules of the game, which depend on parties to settle who holds power via elections and to respect the legit­i­ma­cy of the system in both victory and defeat. 

Donald Trump’s attempt to overturn his defeat in the 2020 U.S. pres­i­den­tial election fla­grant­ly violated this norm, raising concerns about a potential wave of non-con­ces­sions among like-minded election deniers running for office in 2022. After hedging as to whether they would accept the results, some prominent statewide can­di­dates did refuse to acknowl­edge the results but the feared avalanche of election denialism never mate­ri­al­ized. Still, experts currently forecast that former President Trump will again refuse to concede if he loses the November 2024 pres­i­den­tial election (median forecast: 93%) and that one or more statewide can­di­dates in 2024 will refuse to concede (75%). 

This report offers the most com­pre­hen­sive account of con­ces­sions and explicit refusals to concede in elections for federal office since Trump’s landmark election denial. We measure the frequency of these state­ments among runners-up in the 2020 and 2022 con­gres­sion­al elections from both parties and also identify can­di­dates for whom no public statement on the outcome of the election can be found. 

November 2024

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Bright Line Watch in the media

Where Trump Goes, Violence Follows
by Francis Wilkinson at Bloomberg, 10/17/2024

How House Republicans and Fox teed up a major threat to democracy
by Philip Bump at The Washington Post, 7/11/2024

The Supreme Court gets the stakes of pres­i­den­tial immunity backward by Philip Bump at The Washington Post, 7/01/2024

Why Voters Are Worried About Democracy, In Their Own Words by FiveThirtyEight Politics, 5/16/2024

 

 

 

 

 

Trump says some migrants are ‘not people’ and warns of a ‘bloodbath’ if he loses
by NPR, 3/17/2024


Trump’s Threat to Democracy Is Now Systemic
by Ronald Brownstein at The Atlantic, 8/02/2023

Trump indict­ment over 2020 election is shocking, but may come without political con­se­quences
by David Schribman at The Globe and Mail, 8/02/2023

Public Opinion About Trump’s Criminality Is Shifting—a Bit by John Cassidy at The New Yorker, 7/31/2023

 

Bright Line Watch is grateful for funding from these organizations

William & Flora Hewlett Foundation

info@brightlinewatch.org