After an unprece­dent­ed decline in expert eval­u­a­tions of U.S. democracy in the first months of Donald Trump’s second admin­is­tra­tion, ratings sta­bi­lized and then partially rebounded in late 2025 and 2026. Democrats are expected to make sub­stan­tial gains in the upcoming midterm elections, which would likely cause Congress to resist Trump more force­ful­ly. However, the prospect of Republican losses has height­ened concerns that the federal gov­ern­ment will interfere with the election or that Trump will again claim it was stolen. It is therefore crucial to measure how experts and the public assess the state of American democracy and the integrity of our election system in this fraught pre-election moment.

Bright Line Watch’s 30th survey includes 492 political-scientist responses collected October 3–17, 2026, and 2,750 responses from a rep­re­sen­ta­tive sample of Americans collected October 6–14, 2026.