Probability forecasts and reasoning supplied for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections by FutureSearch, Preseen, and Laertes, alongside the expert medians used in the October 2026 report.
These are the 14 events included in the report’s AI comparison. FutureSearch forecasts are dated October 12, Preseen October 5, and Laertes October 20, 2026, as in the report. Rationales are model-generated text, not independently verified statements of fact.
Expert medians and pessimism-adjusted expert medians match the report; AI probabilities are unadjusted. Expert respondents were surveyed October 3–17, 2026. Resolution criteria shown here were supplied to FutureSearch. Rationales are preserved as supplied, with Markdown formatting normalized for readability. This is the report’s fixed comparison snapshot, not a live forecast update.