Forecast coverage and dates differ. Metaculus prob­a­bil­i­ties use the August 11, 2026 com­par­i­son snapshot. Question statuses were checked sep­a­rate­ly on August 19; lifecycle labels use the date Metaculus actually recorded each res­o­lu­tion or annulment, not the earlier real-world event or retroac­tive close date. Expert medians and cal­i­brat­ed expert forecasts are available for the six focal events included in the Wave 29 expert survey; the other questions were not asked of experts. Mantic forecasts were generated June 16; FutureSearch forecasts span July 7–27; Preseen binary reports were generated July 8 and its three-stage reports July 21; the expert cutoff was July 27.

Probabilities refer to the specific horizon shown. Step 1 expert forecasts are medians; cal­i­brat­ed expert forecasts apply the Wave 29 pessimism cal­i­bra­tion used in the report. Step 2 and Step 3 expert dis­tri­b­u­tions show respon­dent means so each dis­tri­b­u­tion sums coher­ent­ly to 100%. Metaculus prob­a­bil­i­ty panels link to the cor­re­spond­ing question pages. Annulled and resolved binary questions remain visible so the forecast record is complete. AI ratio­nales are presented as supplied by each fore­cast­ing system, with Markdown for­mat­ting nor­mal­ized for readability.