Below is the list of categories, democratic principles, and associated questions for the Metaculus U.S. Democracy Threat Index.

Electoral integrity & competition

• Elections are conducted, ballots counted, and winners deter­mined without pervasive fraud or manipulation
  • (1) Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent cer­ti­fi­ca­tion of any statewide election result in the following years because of fraud?
  • (2) In the following U.S. pres­i­den­tial elections, will any state fail to submit a slate of electoral votes to Congress by the safe harbor deadline?
• Elections are free from foreign influence 
  • (3) Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent cer­ti­fi­ca­tion of any statewide election result in the following years because of foreign interference?
• All votes have equal impact on election outcomes 
  • (4) Will a U.S. state leg­isla­tive or con­gres­sion­al map be used for the following general elections with a total pop­u­la­tion deviation between districts of ≥12%? 
• The geo­graph­ic bound­aries of electoral districts do not sys­tem­at­i­cal­ly advantage any par­tic­u­lar political party
  • (5) Will the U.S. House maps for the following years give any major party an effi­cien­cy-gap advantage of ≥20 seats nationwide?
• Politicians who lose elections publicly concede defeat 
  • (6) Will two or more losing major-party can­di­dates for governor or U.S. Senator in com­pet­i­tive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?
  • (7) Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. pres­i­den­tial elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?

Political rights & participation

• Parties and can­di­dates are not barred due to their political beliefs and ideologies 
  • (8) Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?
• All adult citizens have equal oppor­tu­ni­ty to vote
  • (9) Will U.S. Congress pass new limits on early voting, absentee voting, or voter reg­is­tra­tion in the following years?
• All adult citizens enjoy the same legal and political rights 
  • (10) Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the cit­i­zen­ship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?
  • (11) Will U.S. author­i­ties transfer any current or former U.S. citizen to a prison abroad in the following years?
  • (12) Will the U.S. gov­ern­ment seek to revoke a nat­u­ral­ized citizen’s cit­i­zen­ship for post-nat­u­ral­iza­tion conduct in the following years?
• Citizens can make their opinions heard in open debate about policies that are under consideration 
  • (13) In the following years, will any U.S. state or the District of Columbia no longer have a pre­vi­ous­ly existing anti-SLAPP law?

Civil liberties & expression 

• Government does not interfere with jour­nal­ists or news organizations 
  • (14) Will New York Times v. Sullivan no longer be good law in the following years?
  • (15) Will the Department of Justice file criminal charges against one or more jour­nal­ists under the Espionage Act in the following years?
• Government protects indi­vid­u­als’ right to engage in unpopular speech or expression
  • (16) Will the White House direct federal agencies to target three or more high-profile pres­i­den­tial critics in the following years?
• Government protects indi­vid­u­als’ right to engage in peaceful protest 
  • (17) Will the U.S. president formally invoke the Insurrection Act in the following years?
• Government effec­tive­ly prevents private actors from engaging in polit­i­cal­ly-motivated violence or intimidation 
  • (18) Will two or more U.S. state or federal judges or leg­is­la­tors be victims of murder or attempted murder by non-state actors in the following years?
• Universities, busi­ness­es, and pro­fes­sion­al orga­ni­za­tions operate inde­pen­dent­ly of gov­ern­ment pressure 
  • (19) Will the U.S. federal gov­ern­ment open formal inves­ti­ga­tions of at least 5 top-50 uni­ver­si­ties in the following years?

Rule of law & anti-corruption 

• Government officials are legally sanc­tioned for misconduct 
  • (20) Will at least 10 indi­vid­u­als affil­i­at­ed with the U.S. president receive a pres­i­den­tial pardon or com­mu­ta­tion in the following years? 
• Government officials do not use public office for private gain
  • (21) Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?
• Government agencies are not used to monitor, attack, or punish political opponents
  • (22) Will the Department of Justice indict a high-profile indi­vid­ual from the opposing party to the U.S. president in the following years? 
• Law enforce­ment inves­ti­ga­tions of public officials or their asso­ciates are free from political influence or interference 
  • (23) Will senior DOJ leaders override normal pro­ce­dures to protect the President, his family, or his allies from a legal case in the following years?
  • (24) Will senior DOJ leaders override normal pro­ce­dures to open or accel­er­ate a case against a high-profile pres­i­den­tial opponent or critic in the following years?
• Officeholders will not use the military to advance political agendas or intim­i­date political opponents between 2025 and 2028 
  • (25) Will U.S. federal military forces be deployed for non-routine domestic missions in three or more large metro areas in the following years?
• The law is enforced equally for all persons 
  • (26) Will the habeas corpus be suspended for any group of people within the United States in the following years?

Institutional checks & balances

• Executive authority cannot be expanded beyond con­sti­tu­tion­al limits 
  • (27) Will the U.S. President or another executive branch official direct federal law enforce­ment to not enforce a federal court order in the following years?
  • (28) Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nom­i­na­tion of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
• The leg­is­la­ture is able to effec­tive­ly limit executive power
  • (29) In the following years, will the DOJ decline to act on a criminal contempt referral of a current or former executive official who served under the sitting president?
• The judiciary is able to effec­tive­ly limit executive power
  • (30) Will a U.S. federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a federal court ruling in the following years?
• The elected branches respect judicial independence 
  • (31) Will a U.S. federal judge be impeached in a partisan vote in the following years?
• Military lead­er­ship remains polit­i­cal­ly neutral and does not favor or support any political party or candidate.
  • (32) Will an active duty U.S. senior military leader join an election campaign or accept a civilian executive position in the following years?

Information integrity & influence 

• Information about the sources of campaign funding is available to the public
  • (33) Will a SCOTUS decision weakening donor dis­clo­sure rules for political spending or elec­tion­eer­ing com­mu­ni­ca­tions be good law in the following years?
• Public policy is not deter­mined by large campaign contributions 
  • (34) Will DOJ or FTC approve a $5 billion merger or acqui­si­tion after a related $1 million expen­di­ture to a group or cryp­tocur­ren­cy linked to the president in the following years?
  • (35) Will a U.S. cabinet agency award a $100m benefit after a related $1m expen­di­ture to a group or cryp­tocur­ren­cy linked to the president in the following years?
• Even when there are dis­agree­ments about ideology or policy, political leaders generally share a common under­stand­ing of relevant facts 
  • (36) Will the Senate pass a rec­on­cil­i­a­tion bill with no CBO input on Byrd Rule com­pli­ance in the following years?
• Government sta­tis­tics and data are produced by experts who are not influ­enced by political considerations 
  • (37) Will the U.S. pres­i­den­tial admin­is­tra­tion alter or delay the public release of a major federal economic indicator in the following years?
• Citizens have access to infor­ma­tion about can­di­dates that is relevant to how they would govern
  • (38) Will three or more com­pet­i­tive Senate or governor races hold no general election debates in the following years?
  • (39) Will no debates be held between the actual or pre­sump­tive pres­i­den­tial nominees of the two major parties in the following years? 

Parallel ratings questions (not part of index)

• (40) How will Bright Line Watch experts rate American democracy on a 0–100 scale at the end of the following years?