Below is the list of categories, democratic principles, and associated questions for the Metaculus U.S. Democracy Threat Index.
Electoral integrity & competition
- Elections are conducted, ballots counted, and winners determined without pervasive fraud or manipulation
- Elections are free from foreign influence
- All votes have equal impact on election outcomes
- The geographic boundaries of electoral districts do not systematically advantage any particular political party
- Politicians who lose elections publicly concede defeat
- (6) Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?
- (7) Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?
Political rights & participation
- Parties and candidates are not barred due to their political beliefs and ideologies
- All adult citizens have equal opportunity to vote
- All adult citizens enjoy the same legal and political rights
- (10) Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?
- (11) Will U.S. authorities transfer any current or former U.S. citizen to a prison abroad in the following years?
- (12) Will the U.S. government seek to revoke a naturalized citizen’s citizenship for post-naturalization conduct in the following years?
- Citizens can make their opinions heard in open debate about policies that are under consideration
Civil liberties & expression
- Government does not interfere with journalists or news organizations
- Government protects individuals’ right to engage in unpopular speech or expression
- Government protects individuals’ right to engage in peaceful protest
- Government effectively prevents private actors from engaging in politically-motivated violence or intimidation
- Universities, businesses, and professional organizations operate independently of government pressure
Rule of law & anti-corruption
- Government officials are legally sanctioned for misconduct
- Government officials do not use public office for private gain
- Government agencies are not used to monitor, attack, or punish political opponents
- Law enforcement investigations of public officials or their associates are free from political influence or interference
- (23) Will senior DOJ leaders override normal procedures to protect the President, his family, or his allies from a legal case in the following years?
- (24) Will senior DOJ leaders override normal procedures to open or accelerate a case against a high-profile presidential opponent or critic in the following years?
- Officeholders will not use the military to advance political agendas or intimidate political opponents between 2025 and 2028
- The law is enforced equally for all persons
Institutional checks & balances
- Executive authority cannot be expanded beyond constitutional limits
- (27) Will the U.S. President or another executive branch official direct federal law enforcement to not enforce a federal court order in the following years?
- (28) Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
- The legislature is able to effectively limit executive power
- The judiciary is able to effectively limit executive power
- The elected branches respect judicial independence
- Military leadership remains politically neutral and does not favor or support any political party or candidate.
Information integrity & influence
- Information about the sources of campaign funding is available to the public
- Public policy is not determined by large campaign contributions
- (34) Will DOJ or FTC approve a $5 billion merger or acquisition after a related $1 million expenditure to a group or cryptocurrency linked to the president in the following years?
- (35) Will a U.S. cabinet agency award a $100m benefit after a related $1m expenditure to a group or cryptocurrency linked to the president in the following years?
- Even when there are disagreements about ideology or policy, political leaders generally share a common understanding of relevant facts
- Government statistics and data are produced by experts who are not influenced by political considerations
- Citizens have access to information about candidates that is relevant to how they would govern
Parallel ratings questions (not part of index)
- (40) How will Bright Line Watch experts rate American democracy on a 0–100 scale at the end of the following years?
