Deidentified expert panel identifier
Survey start date and time (UTC)
Survey end date and time (UTC)
Qualtrics survey progress (percent)
Qualtrics survey completion indicator
Expert occupation (numeric code)
Expert occupation (text label)
Expert field (numeric code)
Expert field (text label)
Expert institution type (numeric code)
Expert institution type (text label)
Expert age group (numeric code)
Expert age group (text label)
Qualtrics performance-question branch
Number of performance-question branches encountered
Rating of U.S. political system today (0 least to 100 most democratic)
Randomly assigned 2032 democracy-rating scenario
Expected 2032 U.S. political-system rating under assigned scenario
Description that best fits the U.S. political system today
Probability in 2032: free/fair elections and strong checks
Probability in 2032: free/fair elections and moderate checks
Probability in 2032: unfair/tilted elections and weak checks
Probability in 2032: rulers cannot be voted out and face no checks
Sum of four 2032 political-system probabilities
2032 political-system probabilities were auto-normalized
U.S. performance: elections free from foreign influence
U.S. performance: candidates not barred for beliefs or ideology
U.S. performance: equal opportunity for adult citizens to vote
U.S. performance: all votes have equal impact
U.S. performance: election outcomes free of pervasive fraud
State-worded district-boundaries response excluded
U.S. performance: district boundaries not systematically favor one party
U.S. performance: losing politicians publicly concede defeat
U.S. performance: legislature effectively limits executive power
U.S. performance: lower courts effectively limit executive power
U.S. performance: Supreme Court effectively limits executive power
Assigned district-boundaries wording variant
Appropriateness: president pardoning themself
Appropriateness: major policy by executive order without Congress
Appropriateness: president directing DOJ probes of opponents
Appropriateness: Senate majority refusing all Supreme Court nominees
Appropriateness: unified party adding Supreme Court seats
Appropriateness: Congress granting statehood to DC and Puerto Rico
Appropriateness: states guaranteeing popular-vote winner
Appropriateness: partisan congressional gerrymandering
Appropriateness: measures making voting harder for opposing party
Approval of mid-decade redistricting to favor one party
Confidence votes will be counted accurately in 2026 election
Assigned 2026 election-confidence geographic scope
SCOTUS ruling 1: benefit, no effect, or threat
SCOTUS ruling 2: benefit, no effect, or threat
SCOTUS ruling 3: benefit, no effect, or threat
SCOTUS ruling 4: benefit, no effect, or threat
SCOTUS ruling 5: benefit, no effect, or threat
SCOTUS ruling 6: benefit, no effect, or threat
SCOTUS ruling 1: degree of benefit to democracy
SCOTUS ruling 2: degree of benefit to democracy
SCOTUS ruling 3: degree of benefit to democracy
SCOTUS ruling 4: degree of benefit to democracy
SCOTUS ruling 5: degree of benefit to democracy
SCOTUS ruling 6: degree of benefit to democracy
SCOTUS ruling 1: degree of threat to democracy
SCOTUS ruling 2: degree of threat to democracy
SCOTUS ruling 3: degree of threat to democracy
SCOTUS ruling 4: degree of threat to democracy
SCOTUS ruling 5: degree of threat to democracy
SCOTUS ruling 6: degree of threat to democracy
Expected U.S. House majority after November 2026 election
Expected U.S. Senate majority after November 2026 election
Randomly assigned three-stage forecast topic
Randomly assigned three-stage forecast topic title
Forecast probability: DOJ investigation/prosecution of high-profile opposing-par
Forecast count distribution: 0 events (indict)
Forecast count distribution: 1 event (indict)
Forecast count distribution: 2-5 events (indict)
Forecast count distribution: 6 or more events (indict)
Forecast conditional outcome 1 (indict)
Forecast conditional outcome 2 (indict)
Forecast conditional outcome 3 (indict)
Forecast conditional outcome 4 (indict)
Forecast conditional outcome 5 (indict)
Forecast probability: losing major-party candidates refusing to concede
Forecast count distribution: 0 events (concede)
Forecast count distribution: 1 event (concede)
Forecast count distribution: 2-5 events (concede)
Forecast count distribution: 6 or more events (concede)
Forecast conditional outcome 1 (concede)
Forecast conditional outcome 2 (concede)
Forecast conditional outcome 3 (concede)
Forecast probability: opposing-party authority blocking statewide nominee
Forecast count distribution: 0 events (nominee)
Forecast count distribution: 1 event (nominee)
Forecast count distribution: 2-5 events (nominee)
Forecast count distribution: 6 or more events (nominee)
Forecast conditional outcome 1 (nominee)
Forecast conditional outcome 2 (nominee)
Forecast conditional outcome 3 (nominee)
Forecast conditional outcome 4 (nominee)
Forecast probability: DOJ Espionage Act charges against journalists
Forecast count distribution: 0 events (espionage)
Forecast count distribution: 1 event (espionage)
Forecast count distribution: 2-5 events (espionage)
Forecast count distribution: 6 or more events (espionage)
Forecast conditional outcome 1 (espionage)
Forecast conditional outcome 2 (espionage)
Forecast conditional outcome 3 (espionage)
Forecast conditional outcome 4 (espionage)
Forecast probability: executive directive not to enforce federal court order
Forecast count distribution: 0 events (ignore_court)
Forecast count distribution: 1 event (ignore_court)
Forecast count distribution: 2-5 events (ignore_court)
Forecast count distribution: 6 or more events (ignore_court)
Forecast conditional outcome 1 (ignore_court)
Forecast conditional outcome 2 (ignore_court)
Forecast conditional outcome 3 (ignore_court)
Forecast probability: habeas corpus suspension for an identifiable group
Forecast count distribution: 0 events (habeas)
Forecast count distribution: 1 event (habeas)
Forecast count distribution: 2-5 events (habeas)
Forecast count distribution: 6 or more events (habeas)
Forecast conditional outcome 1 (habeas)
Forecast conditional outcome 2 (habeas)
Forecast conditional outcome 3 (habeas)
Final open-ended survey comments
Bright Line Watch survey wave
Survey sample