Important. If this is absent, democracy is compromised.
Essential.  A country cannot be considered democratic without this.
Beneficial. This enhances democracy, but is not required for democracy.
Extraordinary threat to American democracy
Harris focused too much on threats to democracy
Americans preferred Trump to Harris as a candidate
Biden refused to withdraw until it was too late for a primary
The Democratic Party moved too far to the left on identity issues
It is a little too loaded against Trump.  What threats did Harris pose?  Do expanded bureaucracies diminish democratic control? How important is liberty to democracy? And which candidate or which policies promote it?
Not relevant.This has no impact on democracy.
Americans preferred Trump to Harris as a candidate, Biden refused to withdraw until it was too late for a primary
Biden refused to withdraw until it was too late for a primary, Americans were unhappy with the economy
Harris's racial and gender identity, Americans were unhappy with the economy
The Democratic Party moved too far to the left on identity issues, Americans were unhappy with the economy
Harris's racial and gender identity, Harris focused too much on threats to democracy
Americans were unhappy with immigration, Biden refused to withdraw until it was too late for a primary
Americans preferred Trump to Harris as a candidate, Harris focused too much on threats to democracy
Biden refused to withdraw until it was too late for a primary, Harris's racial and gender identity
Harris's racial and gender identity, Biden refused to withdraw until it was too late for a primary
Americans were unhappy with immigration, Americans were unhappy with the economy
Harris focused too much on threats to democracy, Americans preferred Trump to Harris as a candidate
Harris focused too much on threats to democracy, Biden refused to withdraw until it was too late for a primary
Americans preferred Trump to Harris as a candidate, Americans were unhappy with the economy
Harris focused too much on threats to democracy, Americans were unhappy with the economy
The Democratic Party moved too far to the left on identity issues, Harris's racial and gender identity
Extraordinary benefit to American democracy
Americans were unhappy with immigration, Americans preferred Trump to Harris as a candidate
Americans preferred Trump to Harris as a candidate, Harris's racial and gender identity
Biden refused to withdraw until it was too late for a primary, Americans preferred Trump to Harris as a candidate
"as of now" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in these answers, because Trump isn't President yet. I have serious concerns that we won't be a democracy after January.
Biden refused to withdraw until it was too late for a primary, Americans were unhappy with immigration
The Democratic Party moved too far to the left on identity issues, Harris focused too much on threats to democracy
Harris focused too much on threats to democracy, The Democratic Party moved too far to the left on identity issues
Americans were unhappy with immigration, Harris's racial and gender identity
Americans were unhappy with the economy, The Democratic Party moved too far to the left on identity issues
The Democratic Party moved too far to the left on identity issues, Americans preferred Trump to Harris as a candidate
Americans preferred Trump to Harris as a candidate, The Democratic Party moved too far to the left on identity issues
Harris focused too much on threats to democracy, Americans were unhappy with immigration
Americans were unhappy with the economy, Americans preferred Trump to Harris as a candidate
Americans preferred Trump to Harris as a candidate, Americans were unhappy with immigration
Harris's racial and gender identity, The Democratic Party moved too far to the left on identity issues
The Democratic Party moved too far to the left on identity issues, Biden refused to withdraw until it was too late for a primary
Americans were unhappy with immigration, Harris focused too much on threats to democracy
Biden refused to withdraw until it was too late for a primary, The Democratic Party moved too far to the left on identity issues
Biden refused to withdraw until it was too late for a primary, Harris focused too much on threats to democracy
Americans were unhappy with the economy, Americans were unhappy with immigration
Americans were unhappy with immigration, The Democratic Party moved too far to the left on identity issues
Americans were unhappy with the economy, Harris's racial and gender identity
Harris's racial and gender identity, Americans were unhappy with immigration
This survey, more so than the many I've taken before, is not worded well at all, misleads respondents, and has serious issues with how different questions were measured.  Please consider these issues in future iterations of this important project.
The Democratic Party moved too far to the left on identity issues, Americans were unhappy with immigration
I found the "very accurate" etc. response options peculiar.
Americans were unhappy with the economy, Harris focused too much on threats to democracy
Nice job. I would have specified inflation and interest rates instead of the economy, which is generally fine. Also reproductive rights more than identity issues. I feel the emphasis on reproductive rights also took away from speaking to American working-class families and their problems even though it probably drew female support.
Harris's racial and gender identity, Americans preferred Trump to Harris as a candidate
Americans were unhappy with the economy, Biden refused to withdraw until it was too late for a primary
Harris focused too much on threats to democracy, Harris's racial and gender identity
A lot of the scenarios in this survey are not threats to democracy per se, but are probably threats to America’s health, economy, future welfare, etc.
Guys, the questions about the likelihood of Trump "doing" certain things in the next 4 years are poorly posed. He may *want* and *try* to do those things but on some/many of them may be opposed by Congress or more likely the Supreme Court. Thus our answers concerning the likelihood may reflect our estimates of what is likely to make it pass Congress or SCOTUS rather than estimates of Trump really means what he promised.
A follow-up on what mandate Americans expect: I believe that a large portion of Trump's coalition do not actually believe that he will take many of the major, transgressive actions that he promised. If or when he does take those actions, Republicans will face a backlash and those efforts will slow, moderate, or fail.
Contemporary and American political theory
The initial questions about the state of American democracy  conflate views on the current administration with fears about the upcoming one.
the survey relies on the misplaced assumption that America has a democracy to be threatened
Too bad there were not more questions about discontent with the economy.  We would like to know if people approve or disapprove of oligarchs, etc.    Also, some of the indicia of democracy chosen in many questions seem biased in favor of liberal and Western (and one might say bourgeois) notions.  There is very little here about social equality, democracy in the workplace, labor unions, people's feelings about the responsiveness of government to their demands, etc.
political communication, legislative studies, democratic theory
I''m so impressed at how fast you put this together after some of this information was published! great job overall.
Trump, based on his nominees for cabinet positions, clearly shows he values absolute loyalty and a willingness to break the law by the nominees, over expertise/competence for the position. Instituting his schedule F for the bureaucracy will result in widespread corruption, and a bureaucracy that is inept. I also fear that he will fire military leadership and replace the leadership with people who will take an oath of loyalty to Trump and not the Constitution. Trump is also more of a threat to use the military against US citizens than foreign countries. The new House will not assert institutional independence, but the Senate, based on the choice of Thune for majority leader, may act as a partial brake on Trump. At this point it doesn’t look like there will be any “adults” in the White House to rein in Trump. If I were still teaching I would rewrite my spring 2025 Intro to US Government syllabus to Intro to US Authoritarianism.
given the way the survey was done you would have been much better off using Q methodology.  For at least a good part of the survey you would have gotten much better and clearer results.  Also more options on some of the questions would allow you to see the nuances much better. '  Nevertheless, you should get some interesting data here.
You missed asking questions about dictatorship as well as propoganda and the stupidity of the American voter.  Things are even worse than your questions indicate.
I have taught political sociology before and am interested in politics, but if you simply discard data drawn from non-political scientists, please remove me from future participation in this survey.
I think this is a strong attempt, but I think some of this is just hard to measure. I also think it is too bad ou did not ask about the misogyny and racism that were at play.
This is a dark time.  Afraid of what the next survey will look like.
Once again, I can see a clear left-wing bias in this survey and how it is pitched to scholars. You are going to get the answers that you want to get, however, I doubt they will be very accurate. Political science has largely failed to understand the shifting political sands over the past 15 years, largely because it has become a monolithic ideological echo chamber. Shit like this survey only continues to perpetuate that, but I chuckle as our field becomes increasingly irrelevant in the eyes of the genarl public.
Political behavior, public opinion, voting and elections, legislative politics
Elections in 2024 demonstrate the Democratic elections can result in the election of tyrants, and Trump is a tyrant and the greatest threat to democracy in American presidential history.  I hope I am proven wrong.
The questions are interesting, but they seem to be more about which news sources political science professionals use, and less about political scientists' specific expertise. The answers to many of these questions depend more on the analysis I have read or heard since the election, and far less on my professional understanding of democracy and elections, though I do use my professional understanding to assess the news and analysis I consume. I suppose I just wonder what this survey is really measuring. ::shrug emoji::
I interpreted the questions about why Americans supported Trump to mean that at least one of the options was something people believed, rather than something that was true.  Some clarification would have helped, for example,  "Americans supported Trump because.... They believed there is an immigration crisis"
I think a better survey would be a bit more self-reflective on whether or not these "Bright Lines" Surveys actually do much of anything or else increase the perception that academics are proxies for the Democratic Party and far-left ideas.   I think that if you surveyed the average voter, having the "experts" say that something is bad might actually result in a backlash in favor of that policy. More reflection on why "expertise" is now derided would be more useful than "80% of 'experts' say this thing Trump is doing is bad."
Disappointing. Among things it didn't inquire about are:  growing antisemitism deep state collapse of middle class ascendancy of "identity politics" hostility of political elites towards large swath of American public lawfare  Survey is classic example of blindness of political elites towards lives and concerns of general public. Totally one-sided.
Trump is the gravest threat to American democracy since the Civil War. Somehow, someway, he must be stopped.
US defense policy, war, international security, political economy
really bleak to read these questions--they are the right questions to ask, but how surreal to see things come to this.  Nothing is inevitable, but it looks like US democracy as know it has died, at least for now.
The US presidency and Constitutional Law
It was prepared quickly to improve the validity of the responses.  I'd like to apply the old Michigan model of voting behavior to this election.  96% of Republicans stayed with the candidate of their own party.  Apart from MAGA cult members, Trump's image was not good.  Neither was Harris' image.  So issues matters as short term forces in this election.  A careful analysis of Independents will reveal the reasons why Trump won.  I'd apply prospect theory and loss aversion.  Independents had experienced economic losses as a result of the pandemic along with other losses (border, wars) and saw Harris as the status quo and certainty of further losses.  Take a risk and vote for Trump.
International organizations and human rights
These surveys, in general, need to try a bit more to be more neutral. A bit too left leaning.
You don't capture the difference between people supporting the rhetoric of things like deportation and tariffs and actually understanding what they mean. I teach college students (i. e., the supposedly educated), and they are amazingly ignorant. And the hard-core MAGA crowd? Yikes.
The binary nature of the questions at the end of the survey about the 2024 election are problematic.
I did feel that the paired explanations of the election result forced choices between alternatives I thought equally implausible
public policy, state and local governments
Some inept wording of some questions, alas.  Not carefully thought thru, it would seem.
The choice between benefit, no effect, and threat to democracy is very crude for most of these questions. Many things might not be good in general but may not be a threat to democracy, yet may have some effect on democracy.  I fear the questions aim to lead political scientists to exaggerate the "threat to democracy" without giving them space to choose more nuanced and accurate options.
Happy to see the continuation into the unknown realm of a second Trump presidency. We can only hope that the Senate and the Courts, and perhaps the House in two more years if Democrats retake it, will be something of a counterbalance to Trump's White House. Or that Trump's health is so poor that he doesn't survive four years.
The fact that the country is nearly evenly divided regarding the election of President Trump affects assessments of support for various policies. The threat to democracy includes threats to principles such as the rule of law and the ideal that nobody is above the law.
Please keep 'em coming -- this is an essential project --
Great survey.  I have to say that I really think the overall liberal press severely underestimated how important the trans issue was to Trump supporters in general and his backroll, Elon Musk,in particular.
Republicans won; Democrats lost. In a democracy, when people are unhappy with the government, they vote to change it. That's really all you need to know.
Oversimplistic questions.  I would not cite any of the results in classes or writings.
Why was Joe Biden so happy to meet with fascist trump, unless trump really isnt a facist or biden is a lot worse than we led on.
Thanks again for conducting these surveys.
This isn't a criticism per se, but I feel the same way about this survey that I do about many of even the best surveys. Take any given question and any given answer to that question, and different people could have wildly different, even contradictory, reasons for selecting that one answer. I often feel a desire to explain my reasons for choosing the answers that I do, not just because I want to communicate nuance, but because I want to distinguish my reasons for choosing certain answers from other, potentially contradictory, reasons that someone could have chosen the same answer I did. This is not especially helpful feedback, I know; there's not much one could do to address this, short of adding tedious short-answer questions to a survey that is meant to be brief and the results of which are meant to be quantifiable. Even so, this is often how I feel when taking surveys like this, and it's especially noticeable in this survey when the questions are about such partisan, high-stakes, and complex issues.   One example from this survey that stands out is about the threat to democracy posed by abolishing the Senate parliamentarian. I said this was a significant threat to democracy, but not because the Senate parliamentarian role is especially important for democracy, but instead because of the policies I anticipate could be passed as a result during the second Trump administration. Someone who is much more invested in traditional Senate procedures than I am could choose the same answer I did and yet be attempting to communicate something quite different from what I am. But, again, I recognize that this is in the nature of all survey questions (short of writing a tedious survey with end-less follow-up questions), so this is more an opportunity for me to vent a frustration with surveys than it is a piece of criticism or feedback I think ought to be used to make specific changes to this survey.   Thanks for doing this work! I find this survey valuable and I hope the results are proving useful to the study's authors.
democracy will decline quickly if Trump succeeds in dismantling executive constraints (bureaucratic and legislative). state-led violent repression (or credible threat thereof) will increase if Trump succeeds in purging the military and internal security apparatus and places loyalists (those whose political careers depend on Trump) in charge of the men with guns.
This was simultaneously an easy and an unsettling survey to answer.
This survey was written from a perspective of concern over Trump's election. While this survey asks about concerns liberals have, it fails to ask about concerns conservatives have. This bias will result in a blind spot that will prevent political scientists from understanding the political landscape in the US.
The last set of questions, regarding the various Trump promises, and whether voters support them, was confounding.  I don't have a great deal of certainty about what voters know about a candidate's promises, let alone which ones they support.  Following from Downs, voters are pretty stingy about their information seeking.  In short, it is hard to know what voters particularly know or prefer about Trump's platform.  Even shorter:  it's all vibes.
Trump "attempts" to stay in power is somewhat ambiguous. I'm sure he will at some point ask people if its possible or float the possibility, but I'd be surprised if there is a serious effort (let alone a successful one)
Keep up the great work. Looking forward to seeing John Carey (and Lisa) here in Washington, DC, in January!
American Political Development and Black Politics
Rather than ranking paired statements, I think ranking the full list of statements as to why Trump won would be more useful.
Lack of options for don't know responses was sometimes frustrating (e.g., question on Senate parliamentarian)
I want to see the results and the methodology stats.
Toward the end, it felt an awful lot like you were trying to *push* me to say that the Democrats went too hard toward identity issues. Dunno if it was intentional.
Thank you for inviting me to participate. I love this survey and always participate and read the results.
I interpreted the questions quite literally in terms of "threats" to American democracy. For instance, I view having an unqualified secretary of defense as a threat to security but not necessarily a threat to democracy.
Latin American politics, political behavior, political economy
Like all prior ones, it was extremely well designed, offering a nuanced view of how different events and actions relate to democracy.   This round in particular had really deep and difficult conceptual questions about mandates. They remind me of the provocative and sharp treatment in Stokes' Mandates and Democracy.
Effect of entertainment industry on political perceptions
There might be a difference between a bad policy and a long-term threat to the American constitutional system..Some bad policies of Trump can be reversed in the mid-terms or in 2028. Others might have long-term harm and inflict lasting damage. As a comparativist, I might point out that populists have come to power or influence governments in many nations (Sweden, Holland etc)-- because globalism makes both  economic winners and losers. Standard center-left and center-right parties have been too slow to address these problems and inequalities-- as well as issues relating to immigration.
modern political thought; problems of liberal democracy
I freighter myself when I see my responses when specifically required to face these questions.
As always, lots of nuance will be lost. For instance, I agree that concerns about immigration drove voting behavior (although not as much as inflation), but not that those concerns are well-founded. Right wing media and influencers have been lying systematically.
It did not include what I regard as the decisive factor in the election's outcome: that Harris ran an excellent rational-factual campaign while Trump ran a psychological campaign. Unless confronted psychologically rather than rationally, the latter will always beat the former.
Foundations of Political Thought, American constitutional theory, language of political preference and ideology,
Bright Line Watch, as a brushfire poll, offers a touchstone for those of in the political science community to assess and consider our current state of affairs.  The stratification into expert vs general "bins" also provides perspective on linkages and cleavages between the two.
Thank you for continuing this essential work
These surveys have a strong bias against Trump and MAGA.  For example, Trump will not have to fire civil servants.  He'll simply move many of the cabinet agencies out of Washington and most civil servants will choose not to move.  This survey also fails to acknowledge that our civil servants feel compelled to interpret laws and regulations in a more liberal way than Republican/conservative administrations.  And this frustrates these conservative administrations and also, subverts democracy.  After all, the people chose a conservative president, which means that policy implementation will have a more conservative slant.  Since Nixon, these liberal civil servants have been subverting democracy because they don't want to interpret laws and regulations from a conservative point of view.  There is "bright line" on this issue, yet, no questions.  So guess what?  A GOP president is once again tired of dealing with a historically unresponsive and sometimes openly defiant bureaucracy.  His solution is extreme and undemocratic.
Some of the questions were difficult to answer as I felt weighed whether the actions were threats to our democracy per se or just extraordinarily bad and divisive policies (which I suppose are a step towards undermining democracy if not direct hits on democracy).
I appreciate you continuing work on this survey.
Hard to assess some of the early questions about state of democracy, etc. Do the questions refer to current admin with Biden or admin to be.  last set of questions on what whether population supports T policies are confusing in that not sure if talking of entire populace or just supporters of T.
I could not read portions of the survey questions. I might be my browswer.
I lack preferences on many of these choices and some of the wording in questions seems to imply consequences that the question does not require us to evaluate.
US Democracy suffered a fatal wound on 11/5/2024 and will die when the new administration takes over in January. Perhaps future surveys can address the racism of white Americans.
constitutional law, human rights, Supreme Court
Recess appointments are not necessarily problematic in and of themselves, but are in this case due to the undemocratic character of the nominees.
Biased. Can tell that a progressive has developed the questions. I am a left progressive too and cannot imagine Trump has a second term. But questions in a survey methodologically should be unbiased.  I am a social scientist who is developing surveys everyday!
Political parties, elections, and political culture
Thank you for continuing with this important survey.
Some of these questions such as the status of NATO, are really about the collapse of the global order in place since 1990.  So couching them as a threat to American democracy looked like the wrong scale of impact.
There should be an explicit measure of democracy in the survey. I assume you left it implicit on purpose, but it may obfuscate some of the results because some of the questions about things that are a "threat to democracy" depend on your definition of democracy, and may constitute a threat based on your definition, and not whether you think it is normatively good or bad.
The questions about generals and Hegseth as SecDef are likely to be viewed as not threatening democracy. I teach at a military university, so may have more insight into connections. The threat to democracy both pose stems from politicizing all public servants, for carrying out policies made by elected officials--i.e., doing their jobs. This is particularly problematic regarding the military, as a) there is long tradition--legal and normative--of military neutrality in domestic politics (i.e., Posse Comitatus Act, b) politicizing the military is a step towards a praetorian guard that ignores law in order to protect the commander-in-chief, c) detracts from the ability of the military (and all public servants) to uphold its oath to defend of the constitution.  To the extent that Trump seeks to and/or uses the military to carry out law enforcement activities (such as mass deportations), that is also a threat to American democracy for the reasons above.
Political Behavior - Polarization; also Comparative Politics with focus on quality and nature of democracy
The questions about why Trump won and the others about whether his victory means the public supports certain policies are not based on the empirical research from Political Science and other disciplines.  The vast majority of people vote based on partisanship, not specific policy views of the candidates.  And in many cases, they vote for their party’s candidate despite opposing some of the policies.  I don’t believe the responses to those questions will be helpful for understanding the policy views of the public.  Better to replace them with other questions that can provide more insight into the situation in America.
Some of the questions regarding the current state of American democracy were hard to answer in that Biden is still president and he poses little to no threat, while Trump poses serious threats, but is not currently in office.
formal theory and electoral accountability
Thanks for providing this important input to our national conversation.
I think most Americans voted their pocketbooks and punished the incumbents, including Harris, for inflation
As usual a thoughtful and insightful survey!
As a fan of Phil Tetlock's book EXPERT POLITICAL JUDGMENT, I have little confidence in my ability to predict the future, especially when it comes to the behavior of someone so subject to the whim of the moment as Trump.  This is to say that I found the task of offering predictions difficult and somewhat bothersome.
I skipped questions where I did not agree with any of the options opened.
There are things on this survey that affect American democracy and America as a whole.  It was difficult to separate out what is best for the national interest from democracy, even though democracy is clearly in our national interest.  For example, withdrawing from NATO is a threat to America, but not necessarily to democracy.  Same same for reviewing generals, bad for America, not necessarily bad for democracy.  Firing civil servants and returning to the spoils system is a step backward for America, but less of a blow to American democracy.  When surveys ask two things at once, the results will be less stable and less reliable.
A small part of the electorate made the difference in who won. They were probably motivated by a variety of issues, but the powerful one historically is the economy (even though, as in George Bush's defeat, they got it wrong). There was no mandate in this election.
It's important to note that some of Trump's positions, such as US withdrawal from NATO or high tariffs, may not necessarily be a threat to democracy if appropriate procedures are followed, but can still be extremely harmful to long-term US interests for other reasons.
Of course I think there are multiple reasons for Trump's electoral win; the pairwise selections do not allow for a multi-variable explanation.
What is the difference between this is a terrible policy idea and "threat to American democracy"?  Also wasn't crazy about the mandate questions because none of them captured what happened.  70% of voters said country is going the wrong direction, so they vote for the challenger.  It's the economy stupid.  As Charles O. Jones used to say, mandates are like unicorns.
Excellent survey in many ways. Sometimes hard to choose between stark options offered. Very Trump focused, but he is not the only threat to democracy. I see Trump as a symptom not the underlying cause. He was able to get in because of various weaknesses that could let another would-be dictator in as well, and we should fix the weaknesses not just try to get Trump out.
Can't wait to see the results. Glad you all are persisting in this.
Political theory regarding Religion and politics
Elections, voting behavior, political behavior, public opinion, research methods
I am filling out the survey after Gaetz's withdrawal.  Also, there are some double-barreled questions here.  Don't do that.  Finally, there is no such thing as a mandate, in any election.  Bad question.
Congratulations, this survey seemed to be less biased or use leading questions than in the past.
Thanks for enumerating my nightmares.  I was not sure about the question re mandate vs should compromise. He might have a mandate, but a compromise aligns with my sensibilities, so I think she "should"
Questions about the military are hard to answer straightforwardly, and might be best asked in a separate survey of people who are either familiar with the DoD or civil-military relations, and certainly allowing for more nuance in the response. For example, the question about whether Donald Trump's intent to appoint a board of generals to review and expel generals appears to many people (and may be) a political test. However, to many people in broader National Security community there is a widespread believe that: 1) there are too many generals, and 2) many people at the top are there despite their incompetents because they are political sycophants. There's a high likelihood that in Trump-speak those both come out as "getting rid of woke generals." Given that, the former option would unambiguously be bad for democracy, but also that someone unacquainted with the current state of the military would most likely conclude the former was the only reason to think of such a board, there will likely be more noise than information on that and other military reform questions among casual observers. However, I would be most interested to know what people who are aware of the current state of military reform efforts think. It is plausible that a military board would be a necessary remedy to reprofessionalize and depoliticize the military, or it could be a further politicization, but only people who are aware of that issue could possibly have any way to weight those considerations.
Democracy, autocratization, public health, Latin America
As in previous rounds of this survey, when asked to rate the quality of US democracy on a scale of 0 to 100, I used the V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index, which put it at 77 in 2023. I doubt if any of your respondents who do not use a referent of this sort can remember how they rated US democracy in previous rounds. Even aggregating the responses of hundreds of respondents I wouldn't put much faith in the time series of responses to this question across successive rounds of the survey.  I thought the round of forced choices on why Trump beat Harris was a good idea. I think identity politics had a lot to do with Trump's narrow win. Ordinary people don't like being considered troglodytes if they don't use pronouns, say Latinx, use the term pregnant people, etc. Indeed, humanities faculties (now including the late lamented disciplines of anthropology and sociology) at fancy-pants universities bear some of the responsibility for Trump's win. My cowboy cousins in Arizona have no idea what's going on at my university, but they listen to Dennis Prager, who has an army of research assistants combing college catalogs for course titles like "decolonizing the phallus" and "neoliberalism, speciesism, and the denial of intersectionality." A lot of people just say yuk I'm gonna vote for the candidate least associated with that crap.
Law, Politics, Middle Eastern Studies, Policy